jeffmd at Daily Kos is up with an analysis of the new redistricting map in Georgia, which was signed by the governor last week.
Here are the main points.
There’s very little (substantive) change in most districts – John Barrow clearly gets screwed, with his (now) base of Savannah completely removed and the Obama performance dropping 10% accordingly. Jack Kingston’s coastal 1st absorbs these Democratic voters, boosting the Obama performance in his district 8 points.
A similar trade happens in the opposite direction between Sanford Bishop’s 2nd (which oddly is still not majority-black VAP) and Austin Scott’s 8th, with Macon transferred from the latter to the former. Bishop survived a close shave against state Rep. Mike Keown last cycle, but the lege realized it couldn’t have it all – Bishop’s district swings 4 points left and Scott’s 5 points right.
In Metro Atlanta, very little changes – the three Democratic districts stay majority-AA and strongly Democratic. Tom Price’s 6th gets 3 points more Democratic, as it retreats to be entirely Cobb, Fulton, and DeKalb (which, as an Illinoisan, I can’t help but pronounce with the ‘L’ – sue me). While both Fulton and DeKalb overall are very Democratic, North Fulton is decidedly not so; North DeKalb is more swingy.
Similarly to the east, Rob Woodall’s 7th stays largely stand pat but shifts northward, with parts of rapidly bluing Gwinnett dumped into Hank Johnson’s 4th and the rest tempered by exurban (and heavily Republican) Forsyth County. Will these districts be competitive? Maybe towards the end of the decade. To the west, Phil Gingrey’s Cobb-based 11th shifts to pick up exurban Cherokee County from Tom Price’s district, retreating from the Alabama border entirely. (Let’s not forget that Gingrey was never supposed to be a Congressman – he won by 4 in quite theRorschach test of a district.)
As he notes, the bottom line is that the widely-expected change of Georgia from an 8-5 GOP-Dem state to a 10-4 one will be achieved with this map. Two new seats for the GOP, even though Georgia only gained one new seat. That’s what can happen when you control all levels of state politics.